Locust Watch: Seasonal precipitation predictions in the Desert Locust winter, spring and summer breeding areas (March-August 2026) (21 February 2026)

Climate models continue to indicate a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a rapid transition to El Niño in the Pacific over the coming months. These conditions are expected to increase rainfall across the Central and Eastern Regions during the spring. Tropical cyclones may develop over the Arabian Peninsula and will need to be closely monitored. Spring breeding in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan is likely to begin on a small scale in March but may continue throughout the season. In the Western Region, models now forecast dry to normal conditions this spring across northwestern Africa. However, since gregarious breeding has resumed in Morocco, localized breedings are expected to persist through the end of winter and into spring, potentially extending into Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia.