Locust Watch: Sub/seasonal precipitation predictions in the Desert Locust spring and summer breeding areas (May - October 2026) (21 Apr 2026)

Climate models expect a rapid transition to El Niño conditions in the Pacific in the coming month, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These signals are likely to generate wetter‑than‑normal conditions across all regions in May, followed by dry conditions in the southern parts of the Central and Eastern Regions. The summer breeding areas of the Western Region may receive above‑normal rainfall in northern areas, particularly toward the end of summer, while drier‑than‑normal conditions are forecast in the Central and Eastern Regions. Small‑scale spring breeding is still possible in Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Iran, and Pakistan. Gregarious spring breeding is likely to continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding in the Sahel may occur, with an increasing risk of outbreaks toward the end of summer.